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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.