Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
